School COVID Numbers

"How fast will COVID spread once we're back in school?" and "Will school's be safe?" have been two big questions this year.

While some teachers told their classes they "didn't think we'd last the quarter," I told my classes I was cautiously optimistic. "As long as people follow protocol and wear masks I think we'll make it."

"Plus," I added, "I don't want to go back to virtual school!"

So far, I've been right.

The county emails whenever there's a positive case in a school. They contact everyone who's considered a close contact and (eventually) update a graph on the county homepage. The first time I got an email from the nurse to verify my class followed protocols and the seating chart was a little surreal. It's happened several times since.

For the first four weeks of school, cases were on the rise.

There are roughly 13,500 kids in the county and 40 weeks in the school year. We were looking at linear slopes in class, so I used the numbers in a problem or two. 

"If cases remained constant, the schools' infection rates would look something like:

Week 1: 19 student cases * 40 weeks =  760 students infected or ~5.6% of the total population.

Week 2: 38 student cases * 40 weeks =  1520 students infected or ~11.3% of the total population.

Week 4: 67 student cases * 40 weeks =  2680 students infected or ~19.9% of the total population.

So stop complaining and wear your masks!"

If cases continued to creep upward, I could see the county calling a "two week virtual break" or the like.

Thankfully, there was a big drop in cases Week 5.

The numbers changed daily, so I got in the habit of taking a screenshot every couple of days for my own records.

The numbers are probably the minimum. When students test positive, they're given an attendance code of QUA-P (Quarantine-Present). But that's only if they test (or report the results to the school). I've had students who were out for a week or two who are marked UNV (Which is the standard "Unverified" for if a student is out and a parent never checks in). 

This is the screenshot I took on 10/23 as I write: 

I don't know what the county would've done or when they would have done it if the numbers continued to go up. Week 5 was the week we had a rain day in the middle of the week and I suspect the growing numbers were a reason schools were closed.

While families are probably focused on the student numbers, staff cases are more problematic for the schools. Only about half the county staff are classroom teachers, but each one who is put into quarantine leaves a classroom full of kids that someone has to watch. And what if a bus driver is put on quarantine? We're already critically short on those! 

Supposedly, over three quarters of the high school population has been vaccinated. Those numbers aren't even across the high schools, though. I don't know exact numbers, but I'd bet (and win) a large sum of money that Western has a higher percentage of students vaccinated than Albemarle or Monticello. I'd love to know the number of unvaccinated vs vaccinated positive cases, but I'm not sure that will ever be reported for the sake of student privacy. 

This is the current screenshot of confirmed cases by location.

One elementary school was harder hit early on. Baker-Butler has a population of 677 students and 117 full time staff according to their website, but the same number of cases as Albemarle High School which has "more than 1,8500 students" and "more than 200 staff" according to their website. 

Still, those numbers put Baker-Butler's student infection rate at about 3.7%. First quarter is nearly done, so if the infection rate maintained the rest of the school year ~14.8% would catch COVID by the end of the year. 

But what rate of infection is too much? I certainly couldn't tell you. I'm happy I'm not the one making that decision, either.

So far, most of my students who have been out have come back fine. There was one senior on the football team I teach who told me "This is the best I've ever done in math," who then got knocked out of class for three weeks. He came back this week and said he ended up in the hospital and "slept till 6 PM every day," and the highest his temperature got was "107." 

Ouch.

So in the end, school COVID numbers haven't looked exactly like either of the extremes people screamed about before the year started. There have not been rampant breakthrough infections proving we shouldn't have returned. And on the other hand there have been infections and I personally know a student who got put into the hospital. Our county has a much higher vaccination rate than others and I know a more rural county an hour south of us that did temporarily shut down (Amherst County). 

How much are masks, seating arrangements, and other precautions helping? I don't know. Personally, I don't like wearing a mask, but I feel better knowing we're doing something that might help rather than doing nothing and seeing what would happen. At worst, the masks are mildly annoying, hide my smiles, and are a weird fashion statement. At best, they could be preventing COVID, influenza, and a return to virtual school. I haven't caught any bad bugs since pre-COVID, so I lean toward thinking masks help.

So I found it discouraging when my district's congressman went on record for speaking against masks at a high school elsewhere in the state. From here:“If nobody in Rappahannock complies [with the mask mandate], they can’t stop everyone,” Good said to a government class of 20 students Thursday, Rappahannock News reported. “If I was ya'll, I’d say none of ya'll wear a mask. What are they gonna do? They’re still going to have school.” 

And that's the interesting, highly divided climate we're in if you look at the media! Most of the kids I interact with seem fine wearing the masks. There are the kids who don't like to cover their nose, but those are largely for personal reasons like "It's uncomfortable," or "it fogs my glasses" instead of "I hate masks and think they're worthless." But even that could be because the students who feel masks are worthless don't want to say it out loud when everyone around them is masked...or they skip school. There are definitely attendance issues this year!